For the better part of three years, the most common question we have heard from LPs, fund managers, and founders alike has been some version of the same thing: when does liquidity come back?
We may be about to get the clearest answer yet.
SpaceX priced its long-anticipated initial public offering on June 12, and OpenAI and Anthropic have each filed confidentially with the SEC, both signaling listings later this year. Together, these three companies could bring more capital to public markets in a single year than the entire U.S. IPO market raised in all of 2025 (Reuters; CNBC, 2026).
For an industry that has spent the better part of three years waiting for the exit window to reopen, this is not a minor development. It may be the most important liquidity event venture capital has seen since 2021.
A Liquidity Drought Meets Its Biggest Test
The venture industry’s challenge over the past several years has never really been about deployment. Capital has continued to flow into strong companies. The real bottleneck has been getting capital out — returning proceeds to LPs through IPOs, M&A, and other exit pathways.
That bottleneck is now being tested by three of the largest technology companies in the world going public within months of one another.
The chart below puts the scale in perspective.
SpaceX’s offering alone is larger than every U.S. IPO completed in 2025 combined. Add OpenAI and Anthropic’s targeted raises, and the three together represent a liquidity event with no recent precedent (Reuters; CNBC, 2026).
Why This Matters Beyond the Headlines
It is easy to treat mega-IPOs as a story about three companies. We see it differently. These listings matter to the broader venture ecosystem for three reasons.
They reset valuation benchmarks. Public pricing for category-defining AI and space companies will give every investor, public or private, a clearer read on what durable, high-growth technology businesses are actually worth in this market.
They create real distributions. Many of the LPs and funds that backed these companies at much earlier stages are sitting on long-held, illiquid positions. A successful listing converts that paper value into actual returns — capital that can be redeployed into the next generation of funds and founders.
They restore confidence. Liquidity begets liquidity. When marquee names list well, it tends to reopen the IPO window for the companies behind them, not just the ones at the very top.
Encouraging Signals Already Emerging
There is good reason for optimism heading into the second half of 2026.
Early data this year points to a market already gaining momentum independent of these three listings. Early-stage deal activity is on pace for a record year, with first financings tracking well ahead of last year’s totals (PitchBook, 2026 Midyear Update). At the same time, recent debuts from companies like Cerebras have shown that public investors have a real appetite for high-growth, AI-adjacent offerings, with shares climbing sharply in early trading (Yahoo Finance, 2026).
That appetite matters. It suggests the market is not just making room for three giants — it is actively looking for more opportunities to put capital to work in technology and AI-driven businesses.
What This Means for Founders and Fund Managers
For founders preparing to raise, a more active IPO market is a meaningful tailwind. It reinforces to investors that there is a credible path to liquidity at the other end of the venture lifecycle, which in turn supports valuations and investor appetite earlier in a company’s life.
For fund managers, particularly those further along in their fund’s life, the prospect of real distributions this year is a welcome development. Strong DPI has been difficult to come by since 2021. Even a partial return of exit activity can meaningfully change the conversation with LPs heading into the next fundraise.
We would encourage founders and managers to view this moment as one of preparation rather than reaction. The market rewards those who are ready when the window is open — clean financials, a clear growth narrative, and a fundraising process built for a more disciplined, selective environment.
Conclusion
The venture industry has waited a long time for a moment like this. Three of the most consequential technology companies of the last decade are about to test public markets at the same time, and early signs suggest investors are ready to meet them.
If SpaceX’s debut is any indication, and if OpenAI and Anthropic follow with similarly strong receptions later this year, 2026 may be remembered as the year venture liquidity finally turned the corner.
For an industry built on patient capital, that would be very good news indeed.
About Fidelman & Company
Fidelman & Company is a boutique investment bank advising high-growth technology companies, emerging managers, and institutional investors on venture capital fundraising, strategic transactions, and liquidity solutions. The firm specializes in venture fund formation, LP fundraising, Series A and growth-stage capital raises, secondary advisory, and founder-focused outcomes. With deep expertise across both company and fund fundraising, Fidelman & Company helps clients navigate today’s evolving private capital markets.
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