After a muted first half, venture capital showed signs of life in Q3 2025 — but not evenly across the board. PitchBook’s latest Global VC First Look report reveals a market increasingly defined by extremes: explosive AI growth, modest exit momentum, and a steep fundraising cliff.
At Fidelman & Co., we’re tracking these trends closely to help emerging managers and founders understand how macro shifts are influencing capital availability, sector focus, and deal velocity.
Deal Activity Remains Cautious — Except in AI
While global venture deal activity is slightly behind 2024’s pace overall, artificial intelligence continues to be the clear outlier. Over 50% of total deal value in 2025 so far has gone to AI companies, and nearly 1 in 3 completed VC deals are in the space.
This concentration isn’t just hype — it’s reshaping how capital allocators approach sector diligence. AI startups are no longer niche bets; they’ve become central to the growth thesis for many funds.
According to PitchBook, AI firms account for 34% of all exit value in 2025 year-to-date.
Source: PitchBook Q3 2025 Global VC First Look
Exit Markets Improve, But Only for a Few
VC liquidity saw meaningful progress this quarter, with $360B in exit value logged so far in 2025 — a notable rebound from 2023 and early 2024. Still, this recovery remains uneven. The bulk of liquidity came from a small number of high-profile AI-driven IPOs and M&A deals.
Founders outside the AI boom are still finding limited paths to liquidity, as strategic acquirers stay selective and the IPO window remains narrow for most.
Fundraising Environment Weakens Further
While dealmaking and exits showed pockets of strength, VC fundraising continues to deteriorate. 2025 is on pace to be the weakest fundraising year in over a decade.
This dynamic is especially challenging for emerging managers. Institutional LPs are consolidating commitments toward larger, brand-name funds, leaving first- and second-time managers with few paths to close.
What This Means for Emerging Managers and Founders
In this bifurcated market, success depends on focus. For founders, that means crafting fundraising narratives rooted in near-term traction and clear differentiation. For managers, it means proving alpha outside of hot sectors and demonstrating repeatable sourcing advantages.
At Fidelman & Co., we partner with both GPs and founders to sharpen strategy, structure campaigns, and navigate a fast-changing capital environment.
Now, with Fundex, we’ve taken our fundraising infrastructure one step further. Fundex is our proprietary CRM and investor intelligence engine — built on $125,000+ in data subscriptions and real-time insights from sources like PitchBook, Preqin, FinTrix, and ZoomInfo. It empowers our clients to identify, engage, and convert the right investors faster — with structured, data-backed execution.
Planning a raise for 2025? Contact us to align timing, materials, and outreach with current investor priorities.
